Philly Real Estate
Weekly Update

The number this week is the same as last week, which is itself the news. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey averaged the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.40 percent for the week ending October 15, unchanged from the week before. That pause ends a fall climb that ran from 6.95 percent in mid-September to 7.28 percent on October 1, and it still leaves the 30-year more than a full point above the 6.27 percent reading a year ago. The Federal Reserve's next rate decision lands at the close of its October 27-28 meeting, a week from today, and the market has already priced in another quarter-point move. For anyone on the fence, that calendar is the clock.

The buyer pullback is now showing up in the city numbers. Redfin's October 19 report says Philadelphia city home sales fell 13.8 percent in September, with pending sales hitting their lowest citywide level since 2014. Metro-wide, September sales ran about 7 percent below last year even as inventory rose 7.3 percent, and local price appreciation still topped the national 1 percent pace. The typical buyer's monthly payment now runs about $3,335 at 7.40 percent, which is exactly why the rent-versus-buy math keeps more renters renting. Bright MLS's September report frames the region as stalling: the Philadelphia metro median sold price is $400,000, up 2.6 percent year over year, with new pending sales down 10.7 percent.

The suburbs are a different temperature. Montgomery County holds the tightest market, with a median sold price near $508,000, up 8.1 percent year over year, and well-priced homes still going pending in about two weeks. Bucks County's median sits near $528,000, flat year over year, with inventory finally up. And the Main Line keeps its premium near $900,000, still the region's most competitive ground. New supply is arriving too: The Mark, a 34-story Center City apartment tower, opened on October 14, and Toll Brothers paid $11.7 million for a Montgomery County site approved for 34 luxury homes on October 8. My read for the third week of October is unchanged: lock now, before the Fed meets on October 27-28, and treat the inventory finally opening up as a gift if you are pre-approved and ready to move.

Old City is America's Most Historic Square Mile, and this fall it is also one of the hottest neighborhoods in Philadelphia. Redfin's latest reading put the Old City median sale price near $450,000, up 36.4 percent year over year, the fastest climb in the city. The action runs two speeds: classic brick and Federal-era townhomes near Independence Hall, and a wave of new construction pushing the top of the market. The Philip Street townhomes at 249 Philip Way, a collection of four-story luxury homes by an OCF Realty affiliate, deliver this fall at about $1.6 million with only three left; 244 North 2nd Street lists near $2 million; and the off-market compound at 232-36 Walnut Street, complete with a 1,100-bottle wine room, was floated earlier this year as potentially the priciest single-family listing in Philadelphia history.

The real estate follows the street life. Elfreth's Alley, the oldest continuously inhabited residential street in the country, sits a block from the Liberty Bell, and First Friday gallery openings turn the cobblestone blocks into a festival every month. Fork and The Olde Bar anchor the dining scene, Penn's Landing runs to the river, and the buyers touring the new construction are the same people who never want to leave the block. If you want history you can live in, Old City is the address.

Ralph's is the oldest family-owned and operated Italian restaurant in America, and it has stood at 760 South 9th Street since Francesco Dispigno, a Sicilian immigrant, opened the doors in 1900. His son Ralph gave the restaurant its name, Theodore Roosevelt dined there weeks after it opened, and four generations later the Dispigno family still runs the room. The dining room is the point: red-checkered cloths, old-school service, and a menu of mussels, gnocchi, veal, and the kind of red sauce that built South Philly.

Why does a restaurant belong in a market brief? Because Ralph's is proof of what makes this part of the city permanent. A family that has served the same block for 125 years is the strongest possible signal that the neighborhood around it has staying power, and the buyers touring Bella Vista rowhouses are the same people making the reservation. A table at Ralph's is one of the most reliable in the city, lunch and dinner daily at 9th and Christian.